Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
